Currency Currents - A Few Questions
Key News
- China’s retail sales climbed 20.2 percent, matching the fastest pace in at least nine years. (Bloomberg)
- Japan’s economy grew more than economists estimated in the fourth quarter as exports helped the nation weather a housing slump. (Bloomberg)
Key Reports Due (WSJ):
- 7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Refinancing Index. Previous: +4.5%.
- 2:00p.m. Feb Federal Budget. Expected: -$160B. Previous: +$17.84B.
Quotable
‘Given that the mark-to-market theology would, without much of a stretch in interpretation, tell you that some major institutions would already have something less than the capital they need to support their business, one might reasonably ask why the investing public would give them more money. After all, you can buy big piles of mouldering securitised paper on the open market, without the management value subtracted offered by the Citigroup board.’
FX Trading - A Few Questions
Where was Robert Rubin’s great council and wisdom during this ongoing meltdown at Citi?
Is it coincidence the Fed’s major pumping campaign coincided with the potential (and still possible) meltdown of a key asset of the super-power-elite Carlyle Group?
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Does anyone else believe the next major debacle, which is already starting to play out, will be the hedge fund arena?
With $29 trillion notional value in credit default swaps and a cool $292 trillion in interest rate derivatives on the books at the end of 2006, does the $200 billion Fed move cover the problem?
Why does Hank Paulson still repeat the ’strong dollar policy’ pabulum? When will Gulf States abandon their dollar pegs?
With 20% retail sales growth, can’t China afford to let its currency run a lot faster, especially with imported commodities cost soaring?
When will more talking dollar bears turn into acting dollar bears i.e. when will open interest surge into extreme category? Notice in the euro-$ futures weekly chart below that despite the new high in euro, the open interest level has not stretched into what we would consider ‘extreme’ category.
Does our monthly Elliott Wave chart of the US $ Index make sense with a target of 6750; we are beginning to believe it looks too optimistic for dollar bulls?
Jack Crooks Black Swan Capital
http://www.blackswantrading.com
Currency Currents is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to forex and futures should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. While every effort is made to evaluate the actual experience of subscr ibers, all performance figures must be considered hypothetical, and past results are no guarantee of future performance. Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html
