Lack Of Influential Releases And Next Week’s FOMC Will Maintain The Dollar’s Gradual Recovery
European Mid Morning Update
Releases from Europe:
| Forecast | Actual | |
| February | ||
| French CPI (MoM) | +0.4% | +0.2% |
| French CPI (YoY) | +3.0% | +2.8% |
Slightly better than expected CPI figure from France but with oil well above $100 pb no one is taking this as a sign that inflation has peaked. This is very unlikely to have any impact today.
The following economic releases are due today:
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January
U.K. Visible Trade Deficit GBP -7.50bn
U.K. Total Trade Deficit GBP -4.60bn
Euro-zone Industrial Production (MoM) +0.4%
Euro-zone Industrial Production (YoY) +2.6%
March
Swiss ZEW Survey: Expectations
Bloomberg Global Confidence
Overnight euphoria following the central banks’ announcement of a temporary injection of over US$200 bn funding to allow primary bond dealers to swap the mortgage-backed securities that they can’t currently sell for highly liquid Treasuries has abated somewhat in Asia.
Without a doubt it is a good alternative, and probably addition, to simply cutting interest rates. The market is now talking of a small rate cut from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting but most participants are still talking of 50bp.
Already traders are talking of selling pressure again and while there may be some it shouldn’t reach new lows with the prospect of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday next week. That in itself will restrain the market from pushing strongly one way or the other.
However, the market doesn’t like uncertainty and that provides a window for the Dollar to continue its recovery, shallow as it may well be.
There is little on the agenda to provide any great surprises either today.
Bottom picking should be the name of the game today but the problems with this is the risk of a fairly sizeable pullback following yesterday’s gains. However, over the next few days we should see the Dollar reach 104.63-80 Dollar-Yen, 1.5072-1.5144 Euro-Dollar, 1.0183-1.0215 Swissie and 2.0125-45 Pound and these should provide a cap for additional losses.
Note important support and resistance areas:
| USDJPY | EURUSD | USDCHF | GBPUSD | |
| Res | 104.00-22 | 1.5460-94 | 1.0480-09 | 2.0209-18 |
| Res | 103.20-57 | 1.5388-13 | 1.0330-52 | 2.0149-65 |
| Spt | 102.48-70 | 1.5281-06 | 1.0242-82 | 2.0050-80 |
| Spt | 101.93-23 | 1.5144-88 | 1.0147-83 | 1.9949-68 |
Ian Copsey
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com
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