CAD Down before Central Bank Meeting

April 22, 2008

The Canadian dollar was falling slightly yesterday and today against the other world currencies as the traders expected the interest rate decision of the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for 22nd of April.

The total drop of the Canadian dollar (or so called Loonie) against the U.S. dollar this year is at 1.6% after a 17% gain last year. The drop increased this week as the Bank of Canada is expected to lower the key interest rate from 3.5% to 3.0% on its meeting today. The current interest rate in U.S. is 2.25%.

The market is expecting not only a 50 basis point cut in Canada, but also a statement that will support confidence in further cuts by the BoC.

The last interest rate cut was performed on March 4 — it was reduced from 4.0% to 3.5% and the statement signaled that the central bank has now entered a cutting cycle. The present consumer inflation rate in Canada is quite low, thus allowing more loose monetary policy.

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USD/CAD rose from 1.0064 to 1.0072 today on Forex, while CAD/JPY pair declined from 102.59 to 102.37.



Majors Point to Easing Risk Aversion

The majors have positioned to signal gains for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the US dollar’s pairing against the Japanese Yen. USDJPY price action has tracked closely to the Dow stock index, while the AUD and the NZD bore the brunt of carry trade liquidation fueled by recent bouts of risk aversion. Interestingly, the same cannot be said of Franc, with the USDCHF trading sideways in a range. The Euro remains a momentum trade, seeming to need to hit 1.60 regardless of developing weakness in the Euro Zone. The Pound is left looking for direction following the announcement of a last-minute liquidity injection from the BOE, while the Canadian Dollar retains its independence and continues to move along established technical trends.

     Fibonacci Forum

EUR/USD

Strategy: Bullish above 1.5800, Targeting 1.6000

Last week’s bullish bias proved warranted – EURUSD broke through the triple top resistance level at 1.5900. A lull in US data late last week allowed for a brief respite in the rally as dollar bulls pushed price action back to trend line support. A close below did not materialize, with EURUSD right back above 1.5900 today as upward momentum resumes. This week is light on data from the US and the Euro Zone, so technical levels should prove to be the guiding principle behind price action. We continue to aim for a test of 1.60 before Euro traders stop to re-examine their bias once again.

For more resources on the EURUSD, please visit the DailyFX Euro Currency Room.

GBP/USD

Strategy: Flat, waiting for confirmation

Last wee, we saw GBPUSD trading orderly lower along a downward-sloping resistance trend line. Mid-week, a sharp rally catalyzed the pair to break this level. The rally was contained at the 2.00 level, a level of significant psychological resistance made stronger by a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 3/14-4/15 decline. Pound bears took price action back to the trend line, where resistance has now turned into support. Without a clear signal to guide our thinking, we will remain neutral on GBPUSD until further evidence emerges.

For more resources on the GBPUSD, please visit the DailyFX British Pound Currency Room.

USD/JPY

Strategy: Bullish against 102.90, Targeting 105.19

USDJPY finally validated our multi-week bullish bias, rallying past resistance at 102.90, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 12/27/07-03/17 decline. Following the initial break, the pair has now retraced back to this Fib level as price action consolidates. As we noted last week, we continue to see USDJPY test the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 105.19.

For more resources on the USDJPY, please visit the DailyFX Japanese Yen Currency Room.

USD/CHF

Strategy: Flat, waiting for entry point

Last week we saw USDCHF tread along the low of its current range between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements of the 02/13-03/17 down move. The pair looked to be building momentum to break lower, causing us to favor a bearish bias. Similarly with the EURUSD, the lull in the US calendar late last week brought a dollar relief rally, taking USDCHF up for another test of range resistance. Price action has since eased back to the middle of the range. With the pair trading sideways, we will wait to commit to a directional bias. A move to the bottom of the range at 0.9986 would offer an opportunity to play oscillation within the range with a long position. On balance, such a trade would counter the established bearish trend, so traders would be wise to carefully assess their analysis of risk-reward parameters.

For more resources on the USDCHF, please visit the DailyFX Swiss Franc Currency Room.

USD/CAD

Strategy: Bullish against 1.0039, Targeting 1.0250

As we expected, last week saw USDCAD decline from the established long-term range top at 1.0250. Price action has since stalled at the intersection of an upward sloping trend line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 01/22-02/28 down swing. Having already tested the next Fib level at 1.0117 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) after the initial break lower, the pair looks poised to pick up steam for a more substantial upward push. Our bias on USDCAD has changed to bullish, eyeing a return to 1.0250.

For more resources on the USDCAD, please visit the DailyFX Canadian Dollar Currency Room.

AUD/USD

Strategy: Bullish against 0.9400, Targeting 0.9500

Last week’s analysis was validated as AUDUSD turn upward following a descent to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9220. The pair stalled just below 0.9400, showing the makings of a triple top. Price action dropped lower sharply, but downside momentum was contained by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9287. This week opened with AUDUSD breaking past 0.9400. We remain with our initial bias established at the long-term upward sloping trend line test on 04/01, looking for AUDUSD to reach 0.9500.

For more resources on the AUDUSD, please visit the DailyFX Australian Dollar Currency Room.

NZD/USD

Strategy: Bullish against 0.7900, Targeting 0.8100

NZDUSD has spent last week consolidating above trend line support above 0.7900, a level that also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 01/22-02/27 rally. Price action looks determined to inch higher, albeit slowly. Without a significant change in positioning since last week, we continue to hold to a bullish strategy, targeting a rise to 0.8100.

For more resources on the NZDUSD, please visit the DailyFX New Zealand Dollar Currency Room.

To contact Ilya regarding this or other articles he has authored, please email him at ispivak@dailyfx.com

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Dollar Drifts Back Lower In Listless Trading Overnight

Asian Morning Update

European news overnight:

With all economic releases done and dusted by early European trading there was nothing but comments and the BOE announcement to consider.

The joint Treasury BOE mortgage plan for the CB to swap GBP 50bn of banks’ (potentially risky) mortgage securities for government bonds is intended to allow banks to reduce margins on mortgage rates and help home buyers with being able to obtain financing.

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There was mixed reaction from lenders some of whom thought the plan would have only marginal impact on current mortgage rates. Some consider it too little too late and others feel it will provide a needed stimulus to the market. However, no one believes this to be a panacea for the current financial distress.

From Europe came the normal, oft repeated comments on inflationary risks from ECB members. However, the underlying conflict the CB has remains - it still cannot hike interest rates while market liquidity is volatile due to the credit crisis.

While the Fed’s Plosser may have accepted that they have little control over inflation at present as food & energy prices continue to bite into consumers’ pockets, the ECB members still look for inflationary pressures to peak. This has been their standard view since the end of last year when the commonly offered statement was that these inflationary pressures were temporary.

They do voice their concern over the potential for wage settlements to add secondary inflationary pressures and clearly urge for wage claims to be moderate. However, they should study the 1970’s oil crisis that led to widespread union unrest and finally the ‘winter of discontent’ under Margaret Thatcher. Inflation ran into double digits at that time and didn’t decline back to normal levels until the mid 1980’s.

States news overnight:

From the States the Fed’s Kroszner commented that challenges still lie ahead for markets, the increased spreads reflecting the crisis of confidence that has gripped the banking sector. It is nothing new but does still warn us that another price shock could cause deeper damage to confidence.

And finally from Japan’s MITI Akira Amari commented on the ‘extraordinarily high oil prices’ and warned, ‘I have been repeatedly stating my strong sense of crisis that the global economy would suffer a setback if these conditions are left as they are. Today, we are facing a serious risk of a global recession. In particular, resource-scarce developing countries are facing a severe situation.’

He also outlined a proposal that energy and financial experts, as well as futures market regulators, ‘analyze the realities’ of the oil market in a bid to tackle speculation in oil trading. Many in the industry blame speculation, rather than a lack of supply, for oil’s record run.

‘I believe these efforts will send a clear signal to the financial markets, which in turn is expected to encourage more level-headed behavior on the part of speculative money.’

And overall the market decided that Friday’s dramatic recovery in the Dollar just didn’t make much sense and the day saw a steady drift lower to end close to the lows.

In spite of this it is fairly clear that the sentiment for the Dollar has been nowhere close to the rabid bearishness that brought it lower since the turmoil began in August last year.

It is difficult to justify a higher Dollar though, except perhaps from the point of view of profit taking form short positions. Next month sees tax rebates being sent to U.S. households and a general belief that H2 while not seeing a dramatic recovery, should stabilize at the very least.

In the meantime Europe, while still seeing solid growth is slowing also and is not immune from potential price shocks. Thus, even if we see marginal new lows in the Dollar against the Euro the chance of this occurring against the Swiss Franc, Yen and Pound is very low

Therefore the potential for a larger reversal higher for the Dollar remains.

More later once the daily analysis has been done…

The following releases are due from Asia due today:

Japanese March Supermarket Sales (YoY) +1.9% (prior)

Ian Copsey
Global Forex Trading

http://www.gftforex.com

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.



USD/CAD Could Hold Above Parity on Tuesday’s Bank of Canada Rate Cut

In a Bloomberg News poll of 32 economists, 75 percent expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 50bps on Tuesday to 3.00 percent, the lowest target rate since October 2005, as inflation pressures subside, credit markets tighten, and a probable recession in the US threatens the Canadian economy.

What Are The Markets Facing?

In a Bloomberg News poll of 32 economists, 75 percent expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 50bps on Tuesday to 3.00 percent, the lowest target rate since October 2005, as inflation pressures subside, credit markets tighten, and a probable recession in the US threatens the Canadian economy. The most recent CPI report showed that the Bank of Canada’s core measure fell to 1.3 percent, which is the lowest reading since July 2005 and well below the Bank’s 2.0 percent target. During the March meeting, when the Bank cut rates by 50bps to 3.50 percent, the concurrent press release said that “the balance of risks around its January projection for inflation has clearly shifted to the downside…Further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to achieve the 2 percent inflation target over the medium term.” Furthermore, recent economic indicators including Ivey PMI, employment data, and wholesale sales have pointed toward some slowing in domestic demand, which only gives the Bank of Canada the green light to slash rates.

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Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.


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Bonds – 10-Year Canadian Government Bond Futures

Canadian government bonds tested the confluence of trendline and Fibonacci support at 117.00/03 on Friday as traders piled into equities. While risk trends will remain the primary driver of CGBs going forward, Tuesday’s Bank of Canada meeting could lead the contract to jump toward a zone of resistance near 118.19 - 118.41, with a clear break above 50 SMA suggesting that more gains could be in store. On the other hand, if the Bank cuts rates less than expected, CGBs could test 117.00 once again.

FX – USD/CAD

After plunging for much of 2007, USD/CAD has done nothing but consolidate its losses within a nearly 600 point wide channel of 0.9650 – 1.0250. More recently, the pair has bounced from trendline support at the psychologically important 1.00 mark, sparked by the release of surprisingly soft Canadian inflation data. According to Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele, USD/CAD could be setting up for a surge and upcoming event risk could shake up the pair. On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada is forecasted to cut rates, and USD/CAD is likely to show an immediate reaction to the 9:00 EDT announcement. If the Bank cuts rates in line with expectations and suggests that more may be on the way in their press release, USD/CAD could surge higher. On the other hand, if the Bank only cuts rates by 25bp, the Canadian dollar could strengthen significantly across the majors and weigh heavily on USD/CAD.

Do you think the USD/CAD will fall below parity? Discuss the topic with other traders in the USD/CAD Forum.

Equities – S&P/TSX Composite Index 

The S&P/TSX Composite Index continues to surge led by energy stocks, which received a boost from record oil prices above $117/bbl. However, the threat of another bout of market-wide risk aversion creates substantial downside potential for Canadian equities, and the S&P/TSX may have trouble breaking above trendline resistance at 14,350 in the near-term.  On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision could shake up stocks, and bearish rhetoric in the concurrent press release could lead the S&P/TSX to fall down toward the 14,000 level.

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst, DailyFX.com

Tell us what you think about this article. Email tbelkas@dailyfx.com



(BOE) News Release Special Liquidity Scheme

21 April 2008

The Bank of England is today launching a scheme to allow banks to swap temporarily their high quality mortgage-backed and other securities for UK Treasury Bills.

With markets for many securities currently closed, banks have on their balance sheets an ‘overhang’ of these assets, which they cannot sell or pledge as security to raise funds. Their financial position has been stretched by this overhang so banks have been reluctant to make new loans, even to each other.

Under the Scheme, banks can, for a period, swap illiquid assets of sufficiently high quality for Treasury Bills. Responsibility for losses on their loans, however, stays with the banks. By tackling decisively the overhang of assets in this way, the Scheme aims to improve the liquidity position of the banking system and increase confidence in financial markets.

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The scheme has three key features:

  • The asset swaps will be for long terms. Each swap will be for a period of 1 year and may be renewed for a total of up to 3 years.
  • The risk of losses on their loans remains with the banks.
  • The swaps are available only for assets existing at the end of 2007 and cannot be used to finance new lending.

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said “The Bank of England’s Special Liquidity Scheme is designed to improve the liquidity position of the banking system and raise confidence in financial markets while ensuring that the risk of losses on the loans they have made remains with the banks.”

Banks will be able to enter into new asset swaps at any point during a six-month window, starting today. Those swaps will be for a term of one year. Banks will be able, at the discretion of the Bank of England, to renew them each year for, at most, a total of three years. After that, the scheme will close. The length of these transactions will provide banks with the certainty about liquidity that is needed to boost confidence. During the lifetime of an asset swap, banks will be required to pay a fee based on the 3-month London interbank interest rate (Libor).

The Debt Management Office will supply the Bank of England with the necessary Treasury Bills. Banks will be able to swap for those Bills a range of high-quality assets, including AAA-rated securities backed by UK and European residential mortgages. But to prevent banks relying on the Scheme to finance new lending, they will be able to swap securities formed only from loans that were already on their balance sheets at the end of 2007.

Given its scale, the Scheme is indemnified by the Treasury, but is designed to avoid the public sector taking on the risk of potential losses. Banks will need, at all times, to provide the Bank of England with assets of significantly greater value than the Treasury Bills they have received. If the value of those assets were to fall, the banks would need to provide more assets, or return some of the Treasury Bills. And if their assets pledged as security were to be down-rated, the banks would need to replace them with alternative highly-rated assets.

Usage of the scheme will depend on market conditions. Discussions with banks suggest that use of the scheme is initially likely to be around £50bn.

The Scheme will be ring-fenced and independent of the Bank of England’s regular money market operations. So it will not interfere with the Bank’s ability to implement monetary policy.

SPECIAL LIQUIDITY SCHEME: INFORMATION

The Bank of England has announced a new scheme to enable banks and building societies to swap temporarily assets that are currently illiquid in exchange for UK Treasury Bills. This briefing note provides information about the purpose and nature of this initiative, to accompany the Bank’s news release.

Addressing the problem

Financial markets are not working normally, which if left unchecked will have an impact on the wider economy. Across the world, there is a lack of confidence in assets created from packages of bank loans, most notably mortgage-backed securities. That lack of confidence was prompted by the downturn in the United States housing market and, in particular, the problems associated with sub-prime mortgages there. The markets that normally trade these assets have, in effect, closed, so it has become very difficult for banks to exchange these assets for cash - the assets are currently ‘illiquid’.

As a result, banks in all the major financial centres have on their balance sheets an ‘overhang’ of these assets, which they cannot readily sell or use to secure borrowing. It is not that banks, at least in the United Kingdom, have made unsustainable losses. But by stretching their balancing sheets, this overhang has created uncertainty about the financial position of banks. They have, as a result, been reluctant to lend, even to each other. That reluctance is evident in the interest rates charged on interbank lending, which have risen, even though Bank Rate has fallen. This situation is affecting all banks and building societies and has started to affect their willingness to lend money to individuals and businesses. It had been hoped that these problems would be resolved as markets returned to normal. But it is now clear that there is no immediate prospect that markets in mortgage-backed securities will operate normally. The situation will improve only if the overhang of illiquid assets on banks’ balance sheets is dealt with. Only then will banks be willing to lend to each other and, importantly, to the wider economy.

Central bank operations

Banks routinely borrow money from central banks in exchange for assets. They do so to manage their day-to-day cash needs as they lend and borrow funds. In response to the stresses in financial markets, central banks worldwide have extended their lending facilities. Since August, the Bank of England has increased by 42% the amount of central bank money made available to financial institutions. It has increased from 31% to 74% the proportion of its lending to the market that is for a term of at least three months. Since December, the Bank has also widened the range of high-quality assets accepted in its 3-month lending operations to include mortgage-backed securities. The stock of outstanding lending against that wider range of collateral is £25bn. These changes have aimed to alleviate the problem of financing the large overhang of illiquid assets on banks’ balance sheets.

The new Scheme

To tackle this problem decisively, the Bank of England has designed a Special Liquidity Scheme to allow banks and building societies to swap for up to three years some of their illiquid assets for liquid Treasury Bills. The purpose of the scheme is to finance part of the overhang of currently illiquid assets by exchanging them temporarily with more easily tradable assets. The banks can then use these assets to finance themselves more normally.

All of the banks and building societies that are eligible to sign up for the standing deposit and lending facilities within the Bank’s Sterling Monetary Framework will be able to take part in the Scheme.

Usage of the scheme will depend on market conditions. Discussions with banks suggest that initial use of the scheme will be around £50bn.

The Scheme will involve the Government, through the Debt Management Office, issuing new Treasury Bills to lend to the Bank of England.

Banks will be required to pay a fee to borrow the Treasury Bills. The fee charged will be the spread between the 3-month London Interbank interest rate (Libor) and the 3-month interest rate for borrowing against the security of government bonds, subject to a floor of 20 basis points.

This scheme will be completely ring-fenced from and independent of the Bank of England’s money market operations. So it will not interfere with the Bank’s ability to implement monetary policy.

The facility has three important characteristics:

(i) Long-term asset swaps

Banks will be able to enter into new asset swaps at any point during a six-month window, starting today. To provide banks with the certainty about liquidity that is needed to boost confidence, assets will, unless they mature within one year, be swapped for one year and banks will have the opportunity, at the discretion of the Bank of England, to renew these transactions for a total of up to three years. So by October 2011, all assets will have been returned to the banks, all Treasury Bills to the Bank of England, and the Scheme will close. The Scheme is a one-off operation to deal with the existing overhang of assets held by banks.

(ii) Credit risk stays with the banks

Given its scale relative to the size of the Bank of England’s balance sheet, the Scheme is indemnified by the Treasury but is designed to avoid the public sector taking on the risk of potential losses. That risk will remain with the banks and their shareholders. The assets are pledged by banks as security against which they will borrow the Treasury bills. When a swap transaction expires, the assets are returned to the banks in exchange for return of the Treasury Bills.

At all times, the banks must provide as security to the Bank of England assets worth significantly more than the Treasury bills they have received in return. If the value of their assets pledged as security falls, the banks must provide more assets to the Bank of England, or return some of their Treasury Bills.

The Bank of England will decide the margin between the value of the Treasury bills borrowed and the value of the assets banks are required to provide as security. For example, if a bank were to provide £100 of AAA-rated UK residential mortgage-backed securities, it would, depending on the specific characteristics of the assets, receive somewhere between £70 and £90 of Treasury Bills. A complete list of margins is included in the market notice (31k).

The public sector would be exposed to a loss only in the very unlikely event that a participating bank defaulted and the value of the assets it had placed as security with the Bank of England later proved inadequate to cover the value of the Treasury bills that had been swapped for the assets. This is why the Bank of England will insist that banks provide assets with a value much greater than that of the Treasury bills exchanged. Even if a bank defaults and the public sector is left with illiquid assets, the Bank of England could choose to hold the assets until they mature, earning the return on them over their lifetime.

(iii) The assets banks can swap

The assets held by financial institutions that can be used in the scheme are largely the same as those accepted for the Bank of England’s recent special three-month lending operations.

The main category of assets will be securities backed by residential mortgages. Securities backed by credit card debt will also be eligible. These assets will be high quality - rated as AAA. If the assets were to be down-rated, banks would need to replace them with AAA assets. The facility will not accept raw mortgages and none of the underlying assets can be derivative products. The Bank of England routinely accepts assets denominated in currencies other than sterling. It will not accept securities backed by US mortgages.

The Scheme is designed to deal with the overhang of existing assets on banks’ balance sheets, not to create artificial incentives to undertake new lending. To that end, only securities formed from loans existing before 31 December 2007 will be eligible for use in the Scheme.

Source