Weekly Market Outlook - Technical Picture/Pattern Analysis

July 7, 2008

EUR/USD

Weekly :

Attempt above triangle towards 1.59 rejected..Eur still in corrective mode.. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.5485 to 1.6010. To the upside, the consolidation in still the upper-side of the triangle, and while above 1.5580, a first test towards triangle high at 1.5760 can’t be ruled out (1st objective). If 1.5760 resistance is outperformed, price may then rallies towards 1.59 last week top (2nd objective). A break above this level targets 1.60 main channel high. To the downside, minor support at 1.5580 act as pivot point. A break below this level will allow price to test lower supports in the 1.5450/90 zone (1st objective). If no rebound here, a deeper fall towards multimonths trendline at 1.5390 will follow (2nd objective).

EURUSD Weekly

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Daily :

1.59 proven to be a strong resistance, Euro remain in the main consolidation range. Expected trading range for coming days entends from 1.5560 to 1.5890. To the upside, 1.5620 minor support currently reject prices, and while above this level, a test of 1.5720/40 minor resistance is possilble (1st objective). However, a daily close above this resistance is needed to expect further upmove towards 1.7590 - 1.5810 resistance zone (2nd objective). This resistance zone has to be cleared in order to see a Euro challenging once gain the 1.59 level. To the downside, pullback in main consolidation triangle allow prices to correct much lower.. If Euro can’t hold above 1.5720/40 minor resistance, further downmove towards 1.5590 may be seen (1st objective). If no rejection here, 1.5550 main support may hold & reject prices (2Nd objective). If no rejection, expect a more pronounced downmove towards 1.5450.

EURUSD Daily

4-Hours :

Euro vertical correction now sees consolidation. Price remain the main raising wedge, and the current trading of (1.5450 - 1.5590) is still valid. To the upside, the 1.5620 support act as a pivot point. While above, and depending on oscillators situation and candlestick patterns, further upmove may be seen towards 1.5760 first (1st objective). If the move is impulsive and can be sustained above this level, a test of 1.5820 may follow (2nd objective). A break above 1.59 is needed to clear raising wedge consolidation pattern. To the downside, break below 1.5620 means a deeper correction is coming. Below this level, there’re really not much supports until 1.5540 (1st objective). A break below targets 1.5460 wedge low later this week. A break below 1.5460 wedge low is needed to turn the bias negative.

EURUSD 4-Hours

GBP/USD

Weekly :

Last week sees a rejection on 2.00 handle test. Pound now testing broklen triangle.. Expected trading range for coming week extends from 1.9590 to 1.9950. To the upside, while above 1.9660/80, this bias remain corrective, and a pullback above 1.9730 is the miunimum to expect further test of 1.9840 week open (1st objective). It’s only above 1.9840 that bias will be considered positive for a test of main resistance at 1.9950 (2nd objective), enroute to 2.0060. To the downside, fall below 1.9660 argue in favor of a deeper corrective move. First weekly support able to hold & reject prices is at 1.9590 (1st objective). If that support fails, triangle low at 1.9527 (2nd objective) is the next level to monitor. Price reaction may becarefully reviewed at this level.

GBPUSD Weekly

Daily :

Finnaly, price action above 1.9820 has been short-lived and 15-days supportive trendline has been broken. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.9610 to 1.9890. To the upside, correction lower has been rude and several goos resistances may block recovery. 1.9760/90 has to be outperformed in order to see a Pound testing back the 1.9820 resistance (1st objective). It’s only above 1.9820 that a test towards 1.9880 reisotance may be considered (2nd objective). To the downside, break below 1.9660 old triangle high means a pullback in the main consolidation triangle, witch is very negative. Price may fall towards 1.9610 main support (1st objective). If no rejection here, expect a test of the 1.95 support later this month.

GBPUSD Daily

4-Hours :

Pound vertical correction last Friday keeps the price action into main raising channel. Now the question is : Is it a simple correction of ongoing med-term uptrend ? or is the Pound to clear yearly/monthly supports? In order to find an answer, price level and associated reaction has to be monitored. To the upside, current range pivot is at 1.9730. A rise above this level is needed to clear short-term downside consolidation patterns. Once there, Pound may run towards 1.9820 resistance, earlier support (1st objective). It’s only if sustained price action above 1.9820 occurs that we may consider consolidation is over. Then, a test of 1.9960 may follow later this week (2nd objective). To the downside, break of 1.9660 is meaningfull, and as Euro, there’re not much supports until 1.9590 - 1.9610 supporet zone (1st objective). A breka below this support will a allow price to fall sharply towards 1.95 and then 1.9450.

GBPUSD 4-Hours

USD/CHF

Weekly :

Last week sees false break of the 1.0180 support. CHF is then still in consolidative mode. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.0140 to 1.0450. To the upside, 1.0350 is the first resistance to come. Price must trade above this level in order to challenge 1.0450 triangle high (1st objective). A break above this level allow prices to test 1.0580 in weks ahead (2nd objective). To the downside, break below 1.0240 week open is needed to turn the bias bearish towards 1.0180 initially (1st objective). If this supprot does not reject prices, we may see a deeper fall towards last week low at 1.0110 initially (2nd objective).

USDCHF Weekly

Daily :

1.0130 channel lows has proven to be a very strong support. Still inside this channel, price now testing early-broken trendline. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 1.0180 to 1.0410. To the upside, broken trendline at 1.0330 is now main resistance. A break above this level is needed to allow a test of 1.0390 - 1.0410 resistance (1st objective). A daily close above this level is the sole considtion to see the USD rallying towards 1.0450 minor resistance initially (2nd objective), ahead of 1.0520 June highs. To the downside, minor support at 1.0245 act as immediate support. A break below is needed to turn immediate outlook bearish towards 1.0130 support (1st objective). If no rebound on this level, furhter fall 1.01 (2nd objective) may be seen.

USDCHF Daily

4-Hours :

Still in the 1.0150 - 1.0440 range, price has been rejected by range lows and now chllenge broken trendline at 1.0360. To the upside, sustained break above 1.0360 means a pullback in the main raising channel. Then, 1.0420 test may follow (1st objective) and if strong enough, continued rise towards 1.0440/60 range top may follow (2nd objective). To the downside, while below 1.0360 the bias remain neutral to positive, and we need a break below 1.0285 minor support to expect further downside towards 1.0225 first (1st objective), ahead of range lows at 1.0150 (2nd objective). A clear break below range low meets daily downside objectives.

USDCHF 4-Hours

USD/JPY

Weekly :

Last week sees a rebound on broken trendline. Rasisng wedge consolidation still active. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 105.50 to 109.10. To the upside, rebound on broken tradnline remain valid while above 105.60. Initially, a rise towards 108.50 can’t be ruled out (1st objective). Above there, wedge low at 109.10 (2nd objective) may be reached if continued impulse above 108.50. To the downside, pullback below week open at 106.60 is needed to turn the outlook bearish. Then, 105.60 support (1st objective) is the main support able to contain possible downmove. Below, last week low at 105.00 is the next level to monitor.

USDJPY Weekly

Daily :

Price has been strongly rejected by old wedge high, witch is arguing in favor of corrective uptrend continuation. Expected trading range for coming days extends from 106.80 to 108.20. To the upside, 107.70 triangle break is needed to see extended rise towards 108.20/60 resistance zone (1st objective). Once there, price action must be monitored in order to determine if a rise towards 109.50 channel high (2nd objective) is possible. To the downside, pullback below 107.10 minor support means consolidation isn’t over. Break below 107.10 targets 106.70 first, and then 106.30 fib. support (1st objective). Below, very strong support at 105.60 (2nd objective) may be reached on a sustained downmove.

USDJPY Daily

4-Hours :

After hitting channel low earlier last week, USDJPY rebound has been very significiant and price is already back above earlier broken trendline. To the upside, 107.70 minor resistance, once broken, will allow prices to rise towards 108.20/60 resistance zone. Above there, -23.6% fib. projection at 109.00 (2nd objective) has to be monitored. To the downside, a clear break of the 107.10/30 support zone is needed to turn the immediate outlook bearish. Break below 107 argue in favor of a deeper consolidation towards 106.30/65 support initially (1st objective), ahead of the 105.65 range base (2nd objective).

USDJPY 4-Hours

WFXAdvisor

DISCLAIMER

WFXAdvisor recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies with us, and encourages investors to seek our advice and financial services, because the appropriateness of a particular investment, managed accounts service or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. This paper includes information from sources believed to be reliable. All statements and expressions are the opinion of WFXAdvisor and constitute our best judgement at the date and time of issuing. Our strategy combines a predictive/set up one with a price following system and the results have been consistent, because it takes the haphazardly out of trading. We offer a signal service where trades are e-mailed to our customers.

Therefore, the analysis and trades presented is for informational purposes only. The opinions and estimates contained in this report are not either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. The reader accepts that by using the information, he or she will not hold WFXAdvisor responsible for any personal decisions.

For the reason described above and the inherent risk of loss in trading foreign currencies, WFXAdvisor accept no liability for any damage that may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise contained in this report.



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